It's a five-step process.
Each team has a "Vegas Number," which is the number of wins that you can place a bet on a team either finishing with more wins than (the "Over") or with fewer wins than (the "Under").
Our Vegas Number Confidences represent the number of simulations of the upcoming season that resulted in a team ending up Over or Under their Vegas Number (controlling somewhat for outliers, we toss out any results more then two standard deviations off the mean).
So when we say "Oakland Athletics: 83.0 Wins (95.0% Over)", what that means is that in 95% of THOME's simulated seasons, the A's finished with more than 83.0 wins. This is a pretty high confidence. On the other hand, if we say "Philadelphia Phillies: 83.0 Wins (55% Under)" then in 55% of THOME's simulations, the Phillies ended up with fewer than 83 wins. But this isn't very confident. The Vegas Number is probably very close to where the Phillies will end up after the season ends.
The idea here is that higher confidences represent a more attractive wagering opportunity. They're the teams on which THOME and Vegas most strongly disagree.
IMPACT stands for Individual Measurement of Performance As a Component of THOME. It's how we project the, well, impact that a player will have when leaving or joining a team.
How do we calculate it? Well, the details are what we call a "trade secret"... we won't go into specifics. But we start with WAR, and we normalize over a full season of performance. We do that for two reasons: 1, it lessens the volume-dependency of WAR as a statistic, and 2, IMPACT is intended to determine how a player impacts his team when he is in the lineup. So, when a player is not in the lineup, his IMPACT drops (or rises!) to 0.
IMPACT is runs-scale, so the number represents, essentially, how many runs over a full season that player will either help his team score or keep the other team from scoring. It's useful to compare pitchers to pichers, hitters to hitters, and fielders to fielders. It's not, however, all that meaningful to compare Mike Trout's Offensive IMPACT of 79.6 to Max Scherzer's Defensive IMPACT of 54.9.
Engineered at Pastime Labs in California.
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